JoshuaBlake comments on Who’s right about inputs to the biological anchors model?

JoshuaBlake 25 Jul 2023 9:05 UTC
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Do you have a write-up of your beliefs that lead you to 2030 as your median?
- kokotajlod 26 Jul 2023 17:59 UTC
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  No, alas. However I do have this short summary doc I wrote back in 2021: The Master Argument for <10-year Timelines—Google Docs
  
  And this sequence of posts making narrower points: AI Timelines—LessWrong
  - kokotajlod 26 Jul 2023 18:00 UTC
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    Also, if you do various searches on LW and Astral Codex Ten looking for comments I’ve made, you might see some useful ones maybe.