No, alas. However I do have this short summary doc I wrote back in 2021: The Master Argument for <10-year Timelines—Google DocsAnd this sequence of posts making narrower points: AI Timelines—LessWrong
Also, if you do various searches on LW and Astral Codex Ten looking for comments I’ve made, you might see some useful ones maybe.
No, alas. However I do have this short summary doc I wrote back in 2021: The Master Argument for <10-year Timelines—Google Docs
And this sequence of posts making narrower points: AI Timelines—LessWrong
Also, if you do various searches on LW and Astral Codex Ten looking for comments I’ve made, you might see some useful ones maybe.