80,000 Hours thinks earning to give is the best option for a substantial number of people—those for whom it’s their comparative advantage. They are keen, however, to make sure that people fully consider direct work options, instead of defaulting to earning to give because they’ve heard it is the best way to do good with one’s career.
If I remember correctly, 80,000 Hours has stated that they think 15% of people in the EA Community should be pursuing earning to give. Have they revised this opinion or am I remembering it incorrectly?
If not, your description seems a bit misleading to me. Substantial number sounds like a significantly higher fraction of people to me, perhaps something like 40% instead of 15%.
Yes- thanks ardenlk for your article- but I personally would find it helpful to see more quantification in 80000 hours research- as Denise says would be good to know what fraction is your current view and the rationale/figures behind it-perhaps including your estimates for some of the following:
size of EA population pursuing roles you recommend, number of such roles available over a year, probability of average EA landing these roles over a year (perhaps this may be lower than the number of roles/applicants due to some applicants being more qualified/experienced than the average EA), the monetary impact of each of the roles you recommend for EAs to compare to earning to give. I think this would help EAs to make a more informed decision about their career choice.
Apologies if you’ve already published these or similar figures and I havent seen. Perhaps there is a fear of not wanting to be a hostage to these numbers, but I think its fine to change your mind/estimates as the facts change (as per John Maynard Keynes), and understandable given that research into effective careers is at an early stage.
I think it would be misleading if OP had said ‘substantial proportion’. I read ‘substantial number’ as a comment on the absolute numbers, which is vague (how many is ‘substantial’) but not misleading.
If I remember correctly, 80,000 Hours has stated that they think 15% of people in the EA Community should be pursuing earning to give.
I think this is the article you’re thinking about, where they’re talking about the paths of marginal graduates. Note that it’s from 2015 (though at least Will said he still thought it seemed right in 2016) and explicitly labeled with “Please note that this is just a straw poll used as a way of addressing the misconception stated; it doesn’t represent a definitive answer to this question”.
If I remember correctly, 80,000 Hours has stated that they think 15% of people in the EA Community should be pursuing earning to give. Have they revised this opinion or am I remembering it incorrectly?
If not, your description seems a bit misleading to me. Substantial number sounds like a significantly higher fraction of people to me, perhaps something like 40% instead of 15%.
Yes- thanks ardenlk for your article- but I personally would find it helpful to see more quantification in 80000 hours research- as Denise says would be good to know what fraction is your current view and the rationale/figures behind it-perhaps including your estimates for some of the following:
size of EA population pursuing roles you recommend, number of such roles available over a year, probability of average EA landing these roles over a year (perhaps this may be lower than the number of roles/applicants due to some applicants being more qualified/experienced than the average EA), the monetary impact of each of the roles you recommend for EAs to compare to earning to give. I think this would help EAs to make a more informed decision about their career choice.
Apologies if you’ve already published these or similar figures and I havent seen. Perhaps there is a fear of not wanting to be a hostage to these numbers, but I think its fine to change your mind/estimates as the facts change (as per John Maynard Keynes), and understandable given that research into effective careers is at an early stage.
I think it would be misleading if OP had said ‘substantial proportion’. I read ‘substantial number’ as a comment on the absolute numbers, which is vague (how many is ‘substantial’) but not misleading.
I think this is the article you’re thinking about, where they’re talking about the paths of marginal graduates. Note that it’s from 2015 (though at least Will said he still thought it seemed right in 2016) and explicitly labeled with “Please note that this is just a straw poll used as a way of addressing the misconception stated; it doesn’t represent a definitive answer to this question”.