Figure four averages across all models. I think figure six is more illuminating:
Basically, the 80% threshold is ~2 doublings behind the 50% threshold, or ~1 year. An extra year isn’t nothing! But you’re still not getting to 10+ year timelines.
The more task lengths the 80% threshold has to run through before it gets to task length we’d regard as AGI complete though, the more different the tasks at the end of the sequence are from the beginning, and therefore the more likely it is that the doubling trend will break down somewhere along the length of the sequence. That seems to me like the main significance of titotal’s point, not the time gained if we just assume the current 80% doubling trend will continue right to the end of the line. Plausibly 30 seconds to minute long tasks are more different from weeks long tasks than 15 minute tasks are.
Fair enough! My guess is that when the trend breaks it will be because things have gone super-exponential rather than sub-exponential (some discussion here) but yeah, I agree that this could happen!
Figure four averages across all models. I think figure six is more illuminating:
Basically, the 80% threshold is ~2 doublings behind the 50% threshold, or ~1 year. An extra year isn’t nothing! But you’re still not getting to 10+ year timelines.
The more task lengths the 80% threshold has to run through before it gets to task length we’d regard as AGI complete though, the more different the tasks at the end of the sequence are from the beginning, and therefore the more likely it is that the doubling trend will break down somewhere along the length of the sequence. That seems to me like the main significance of titotal’s point, not the time gained if we just assume the current 80% doubling trend will continue right to the end of the line. Plausibly 30 seconds to minute long tasks are more different from weeks long tasks than 15 minute tasks are.
So the claim is:
The 50% trend will break down at some length of task T
The 80% trend will therefore break at T/4
And maybe T is large enough to cause some catastrophic risk, but T/4 isn’t
?
Yes. (Though I’m not saying this will happen, just that it could, and that is more significant than a short delay.)
Fair enough! My guess is that when the trend breaks it will be because things have gone super-exponential rather than sub-exponential (some discussion here) but yeah, I agree that this could happen!