I think there was one certain failure mode of “prediction markets will somehow both be legal, and also more legal than regular sports gambling, in the US”.
This combination of scenarios seemed very unlikely to me 4-6 years ago! I think this was seen universally as a tough combination, you can see this in the market prices / valuations of the related companies.
That said, there was an understanding a while back that US public prediction markets would likely be sleazy/predatory in ways similar to sports gambling. This is one reason I preferred prediction tournaments like Metaculus over financial prediction markets like Kalshi.
I’d also flag that there was, and still is, potential for real-money prediction markets to get adapted by large experienced financial authorities for more serious purposes like hedging. There are overall professionalized and useful ways to use these sorts of tools, though it is the case that much of the current market is quite miserable.
I think there was one certain failure mode of “prediction markets will somehow both be legal, and also more legal than regular sports gambling, in the US”.
This combination of scenarios seemed very unlikely to me 4-6 years ago! I think this was seen universally as a tough combination, you can see this in the market prices / valuations of the related companies.
That said, there was an understanding a while back that US public prediction markets would likely be sleazy/predatory in ways similar to sports gambling. This is one reason I preferred prediction tournaments like Metaculus over financial prediction markets like Kalshi.
I’d also flag that there was, and still is, potential for real-money prediction markets to get adapted by large experienced financial authorities for more serious purposes like hedging. There are overall professionalized and useful ways to use these sorts of tools, though it is the case that much of the current market is quite miserable.