Do you think that “a panel of superforecasters, after being exposed to all the arguments [about existential risk], would be closer to [MacAskill’s] view [about the level of risk this century] than to the median FHI view”? If so, should we defer to such a panel out of epistemic modesty?
I personally, writing as a superforecaster, think that this isn’t particularly useful. Superforecasters tend to be really good at evaluating and updating based on concrete evidence, but I’m far less sure about whether their ability to evaluate arguments is any better than that of a similarly educated / intelligent group. I do think that FHI is a weird test case, however, because it is selecting on the outcome variable—people who think existential risks are urgent are actively trying to work there. I’d prefer to look at, say, the views of a groups of undergraduates after taking a course on existential risk. (And this seems like an easy thing to check, given that there are such courses ongoing.)
Do you think that “a panel of superforecasters, after being exposed to all the arguments [about existential risk], would be closer to [MacAskill’s] view [about the level of risk this century] than to the median FHI view”? If so, should we defer to such a panel out of epistemic modesty?
I personally, writing as a superforecaster, think that this isn’t particularly useful. Superforecasters tend to be really good at evaluating and updating based on concrete evidence, but I’m far less sure about whether their ability to evaluate arguments is any better than that of a similarly educated / intelligent group. I do think that FHI is a weird test case, however, because it is selecting on the outcome variable—people who think existential risks are urgent are actively trying to work there. I’d prefer to look at, say, the views of a groups of undergraduates after taking a course on existential risk. (And this seems like an easy thing to check, given that there are such courses ongoing.)
Do you have references/numbers for these views you can include here?