I think it’s worth exploring those other options further.
Two things to note, though:
The evidence base for such work is likely to be far worse (i.e. there would be little feedback and precedent to go on), and someone sufficiently skeptical might discount them based on priors. I think this is part of what favours GiveWell-recommended charities. That being said, I don’t expect RCTs for rescuing North Koreans, either, so I expect this to fall in-between in terms of strength of evidence.
I think similar arguments also suggest moving on from GiveWell’s recommended charities. This isn’t meant to undermine your comparison, but rather to point out that these kinds of comparisons would have implications for those who support GiveWell recommended charities, too.
Definitely; good point—I am sort of just deploying the generic longtermist argument, with all the advantages and drawbacks that brings.
I wonder if you could actually build up a bit of an evidence base from historical case studies?? There’s a long history of trying to help people escape oppressive regimes: slaves in the American south, Jewish people during WW2, East Berliners and other refugees of communism. It might be interesting to do a historical survey and try to analyze what interventions did the most good for people in those situations. (Spreading information, helping individual people escape, supporting internal resistance or reform, lobbying your own country’s policy towards the problematic regime, fighting the full-scale war.) Obviously the situations are very different from each other, but it might turn out helpful. Although for sheer cost-effectiveness, it might be tough for “helping people escape totalitarian regimes” to compete with “helping refugees from very poor and violent countries immigrate to rich and stable ones”, which seems like it ought to be cheaper to do at scale.
I think it’s worth exploring those other options further.
Two things to note, though:
The evidence base for such work is likely to be far worse (i.e. there would be little feedback and precedent to go on), and someone sufficiently skeptical might discount them based on priors. I think this is part of what favours GiveWell-recommended charities. That being said, I don’t expect RCTs for rescuing North Koreans, either, so I expect this to fall in-between in terms of strength of evidence.
I think similar arguments also suggest moving on from GiveWell’s recommended charities. This isn’t meant to undermine your comparison, but rather to point out that these kinds of comparisons would have implications for those who support GiveWell recommended charities, too.
Definitely; good point—I am sort of just deploying the generic longtermist argument, with all the advantages and drawbacks that brings.
I wonder if you could actually build up a bit of an evidence base from historical case studies?? There’s a long history of trying to help people escape oppressive regimes: slaves in the American south, Jewish people during WW2, East Berliners and other refugees of communism. It might be interesting to do a historical survey and try to analyze what interventions did the most good for people in those situations. (Spreading information, helping individual people escape, supporting internal resistance or reform, lobbying your own country’s policy towards the problematic regime, fighting the full-scale war.) Obviously the situations are very different from each other, but it might turn out helpful. Although for sheer cost-effectiveness, it might be tough for “helping people escape totalitarian regimes” to compete with “helping refugees from very poor and violent countries immigrate to rich and stable ones”, which seems like it ought to be cheaper to do at scale.