My colleague Linch asked me âto include a random sample of 9 predictions that resolved negatively.â I numbered the incorrect market/âsupermarket predictions and then randomised the list of numbers, and used an online random number generator to select nine numbers.
March 2019 âJUST, the San Francisco-based company racing to be the first to bring cell-based meat to market, announced in a CBS San Francisco interview last month that they would debut their first product â a cultured chicken nugget â in Asia sometime this yearâ
February 2018 âTetrick claims his startup has finally made the process cost-effective enough to take to market: At the end of this year, he says, Just will officially introduce an as yet undisclosed lab-grown meat, the first time the stuff will hit shelves.â
March 2018 âMemphis Meats is trying to bring its products to high-end restaurant menus by next year, and, by 2021, bring production costs down to equal grocery store meat products at $3 to $4 per pound.â
December 2018 âThe steak product is expected to be ready to sell within two years.ââAleph Farms
January 2018 âIt [Supermeat] reckons it is still up to three years away from putting SuperMeat products on supermarket shelves.â
ACE reported that in February 2017 Mark Post predicted âââFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3â4 years (i.e., 2020â2021). It will probably take another 3â4 years (i.e., 2023â2025) for the price to come down to the level where itâs acceptable for the broader public.â
June 2006 Scientist Paul Kosnik: âWe believe the goal of a processed meat product is attainable in the next five years if funding is available and the R&D is pursued aggressively.â
January 2016 (no hyperlink was given in the MotherJones article but they credit GFI as the source and you can see it copy-pasted into at least two mediaarticles on Google Search) âMemphis Meats is already growing real meat in small quantities using cells from cows, pigs, and chickens. The companyâs first productsâhot dogs, sausages, burgers, and meatballsâwill be developed using recipes perfected over a half century by award-winning chefs. The founders expect to have products to market within five years.â
August 2009 Jason Matheny of New Harvest said âWe think that a technology to produce cultured ground meatsâburgers, sausages, nuggets, and so forthâcould be commercialized within ten years,â
EDIT: Woops, got my COVID dates mixed up; I was thinking March 2020.
March 2019 âJUST, the San Francisco-based company racing to be the first to bring cell-based meat to market, announced in a CBS San Francisco interview last month that they would debut their first product â a cultured chicken nugget â in Asia sometime this yearâ
I think itâs reasonably likely this was delayed by COVID-19, given they made this prediction when it wasnât clear how bad things would be, they debuted in a restaurant in Singapore at the end of 2020, and restaurants where they were looking to debut might have been closed (or they preferred an in-person debut, rather than take-out).
I wouldnât be surprised if COVID caused some other delays, not just for JUST, but basically all of these companies, as long as their deadlines were in 2020 or later. Some lab and manufacturing work might not have been allowed or was impeded for extended periods due to lockdowns. Iâm not sure how much delay we should allow for these lockdowns, though.
I donât think itâs reasonably likely this particular prediction was delayed by COVID-19, given they made this prediction in early 2019 about a product being on offer *in 2019*. I donât think there is much to suggest any impediments to a product roll-out in 2019 from the pandemic since it only started having major impacts/âreactions in 2020.
For other predictions in this dataset made by companies, research institutes, and reported in the media it seems likely the pandemic threw up an unexpected obstacle and delay. However, that would presumably also be true for whatever other tools or sources we might alternatively rely on for cultured meat timelines and so I donât think it changes the overall conclusion on how much stock to put into the types of predictions/âpredictors represented in this dataset.
Woops, ya, I got my dates mixed up for COVID and JUST.
However, that would presumably also be true for whatever other tools or sources we might alternatively rely on for cultured meat timelines and so I donât think it changes the overall conclusion on how much stock to put into the types of predictions/âpredictors represented in this dataset.
Iâm not sure what you mean by this. My point is that COVID might have made some of these predictions false, when they would have otherwise ended up true without COVID, so these groups just got very unlucky, and we shouldnât count these particular inaccurate predictions against them.
It also looks like about half or more of the predictions had dates ending in 2020 or later based on the two graphs in the post, so this could affect many of them.
My colleague Linch asked me âto include a random sample of 9 predictions that resolved negatively.â I numbered the incorrect market/âsupermarket predictions and then randomised the list of numbers, and used an online random number generator to select nine numbers.
March 2019 âJUST, the San Francisco-based company racing to be the first to bring cell-based meat to market, announced in a CBS San Francisco interview last month that they would debut their first product â a cultured chicken nugget â in Asia sometime this yearâ
February 2018 âTetrick claims his startup has finally made the process cost-effective enough to take to market: At the end of this year, he says, Just will officially introduce an as yet undisclosed lab-grown meat, the first time the stuff will hit shelves.â
March 2018 âMemphis Meats is trying to bring its products to high-end restaurant menus by next year, and, by 2021, bring production costs down to equal grocery store meat products at $3 to $4 per pound.â
December 2018 âThe steak product is expected to be ready to sell within two years.ââAleph Farms
January 2018 âIt [Supermeat] reckons it is still up to three years away from putting SuperMeat products on supermarket shelves.â
ACE reported that in February 2017 Mark Post predicted âââFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3â4 years (i.e., 2020â2021). It will probably take another 3â4 years (i.e., 2023â2025) for the price to come down to the level where itâs acceptable for the broader public.â
June 2006 Scientist Paul Kosnik: âWe believe the goal of a processed meat product is attainable in the next five years if funding is available and the R&D is pursued aggressively.â
January 2016 (no hyperlink was given in the MotherJones article but they credit GFI as the source and you can see it copy-pasted into at least two media articles on Google Search) âMemphis Meats is already growing real meat in small quantities using cells from cows, pigs, and chickens. The companyâs first productsâhot dogs, sausages, burgers, and meatballsâwill be developed using recipes perfected over a half century by award-winning chefs. The founders expect to have products to market within five years.â
August 2009 Jason Matheny of New Harvest said âWe think that a technology to produce cultured ground meatsâburgers, sausages, nuggets, and so forthâcould be commercialized within ten years,â
EDIT: Woops, got my COVID dates mixed up; I was thinking March 2020.
I think itâs reasonably likely this was delayed by COVID-19, given they made this prediction when it wasnât clear how bad things would be, they debuted in a restaurant in Singapore at the end of 2020, and restaurants where they were looking to debut might have been closed (or they preferred an in-person debut, rather than take-out).I wouldnât be surprised if COVID caused some
otherdelays, not just for JUST, but basically all of these companies, as long as their deadlines were in 2020 or later. Some lab and manufacturing work might not have been allowed or was impeded for extended periods due to lockdowns. Iâm not sure how much delay we should allow for these lockdowns, though.I donât think itâs reasonably likely this particular prediction was delayed by COVID-19, given they made this prediction in early 2019 about a product being on offer *in 2019*. I donât think there is much to suggest any impediments to a product roll-out in 2019 from the pandemic since it only started having major impacts/âreactions in 2020.
For other predictions in this dataset made by companies, research institutes, and reported in the media it seems likely the pandemic threw up an unexpected obstacle and delay. However, that would presumably also be true for whatever other tools or sources we might alternatively rely on for cultured meat timelines and so I donât think it changes the overall conclusion on how much stock to put into the types of predictions/âpredictors represented in this dataset.
Woops, ya, I got my dates mixed up for COVID and JUST.
Iâm not sure what you mean by this. My point is that COVID might have made some of these predictions false, when they would have otherwise ended up true without COVID, so these groups just got very unlucky, and we shouldnât count these particular inaccurate predictions against them.
It also looks like about half or more of the predictions had dates ending in 2020 or later based on the two graphs in the post, so this could affect many of them.