EDIT: Woops, got my COVID dates mixed up; I was thinking March 2020.
March 2019 “JUST, the San Francisco-based company racing to be the first to bring cell-based meat to market, announced in a CBS San Francisco interview last month that they would debut their first product — a cultured chicken nugget — in Asia sometime this year”
I think it’s reasonably likely this was delayed by COVID-19, given they made this prediction when it wasn’t clear how bad things would be, they debuted in a restaurant in Singapore at the end of 2020, and restaurants where they were looking to debut might have been closed (or they preferred an in-person debut, rather than take-out).
I wouldn’t be surprised if COVID caused some other delays, not just for JUST, but basically all of these companies, as long as their deadlines were in 2020 or later. Some lab and manufacturing work might not have been allowed or was impeded for extended periods due to lockdowns. I’m not sure how much delay we should allow for these lockdowns, though.
I don’t think it’s reasonably likely this particular prediction was delayed by COVID-19, given they made this prediction in early 2019 about a product being on offer *in 2019*. I don’t think there is much to suggest any impediments to a product roll-out in 2019 from the pandemic since it only started having major impacts/reactions in 2020.
For other predictions in this dataset made by companies, research institutes, and reported in the media it seems likely the pandemic threw up an unexpected obstacle and delay. However, that would presumably also be true for whatever other tools or sources we might alternatively rely on for cultured meat timelines and so I don’t think it changes the overall conclusion on how much stock to put into the types of predictions/predictors represented in this dataset.
Woops, ya, I got my dates mixed up for COVID and JUST.
However, that would presumably also be true for whatever other tools or sources we might alternatively rely on for cultured meat timelines and so I don’t think it changes the overall conclusion on how much stock to put into the types of predictions/predictors represented in this dataset.
I’m not sure what you mean by this. My point is that COVID might have made some of these predictions false, when they would have otherwise ended up true without COVID, so these groups just got very unlucky, and we shouldn’t count these particular inaccurate predictions against them.
It also looks like about half or more of the predictions had dates ending in 2020 or later based on the two graphs in the post, so this could affect many of them.
EDIT: Woops, got my COVID dates mixed up; I was thinking March 2020.
I think it’s reasonably likely this was delayed by COVID-19, given they made this prediction when it wasn’t clear how bad things would be, they debuted in a restaurant in Singapore at the end of 2020, and restaurants where they were looking to debut might have been closed (or they preferred an in-person debut, rather than take-out).I wouldn’t be surprised if COVID caused some
otherdelays, not just for JUST, but basically all of these companies, as long as their deadlines were in 2020 or later. Some lab and manufacturing work might not have been allowed or was impeded for extended periods due to lockdowns. I’m not sure how much delay we should allow for these lockdowns, though.I don’t think it’s reasonably likely this particular prediction was delayed by COVID-19, given they made this prediction in early 2019 about a product being on offer *in 2019*. I don’t think there is much to suggest any impediments to a product roll-out in 2019 from the pandemic since it only started having major impacts/reactions in 2020.
For other predictions in this dataset made by companies, research institutes, and reported in the media it seems likely the pandemic threw up an unexpected obstacle and delay. However, that would presumably also be true for whatever other tools or sources we might alternatively rely on for cultured meat timelines and so I don’t think it changes the overall conclusion on how much stock to put into the types of predictions/predictors represented in this dataset.
Woops, ya, I got my dates mixed up for COVID and JUST.
I’m not sure what you mean by this. My point is that COVID might have made some of these predictions false, when they would have otherwise ended up true without COVID, so these groups just got very unlucky, and we shouldn’t count these particular inaccurate predictions against them.
It also looks like about half or more of the predictions had dates ending in 2020 or later based on the two graphs in the post, so this could affect many of them.