The arguments about pre-driven cars seem to draw a sharp line between understanding and doing. The obvious counter seems to be asking if your brain is “pre-programmed” or “self-directed”. (If this seems confused, I strongly recommend the book “Good and Real” as a way to better think about this question.)
I’m also confused about why the meaning bias is a counter-argument to specific scenarios and estimates, but that’s mostly directed toward my assumption that this claim is related to Pinker’s argument. Otherwise I don’t understand why “fertile ground for motivated reasoning” isn’t a reason to simply find outside view estimates—the AI skeptics mostly say we don’t need to worry about SAI for around 40 years, which seems consistent with investing a ton more in risk mitigation now.
The arguments about pre-driven cars seem to draw a sharp line between understanding and doing. The obvious counter seems to be asking if your brain is “pre-programmed” or “self-directed”. (If this seems confused, I strongly recommend the book “Good and Real” as a way to better think about this question.)
I’m also confused about why the meaning bias is a counter-argument to specific scenarios and estimates, but that’s mostly directed toward my assumption that this claim is related to Pinker’s argument. Otherwise I don’t understand why “fertile ground for motivated reasoning” isn’t a reason to simply find outside view estimates—the AI skeptics mostly say we don’t need to worry about SAI for around 40 years, which seems consistent with investing a ton more in risk mitigation now.