Difficult to interpret a lot of this as it seems to be a debate between potentially biased pacifists, and potentially biased military blogger. As with many disagreements the truth is likely in the middle somewhere (as Rodriguez noted). Need new independent studies on this that are divorced from the existing pedigrees. That said, much of the catastrophic risk from nuclear war may be in the more than likely catastrophic trade disruptions, which alone could lead to famines, given that nearly 2⁄3 of countries are net food importers, and almost no one makes their own liquid fuel to run their agricultural equipment.
That said, much of the catastrophic risk from nuclear war may be in the more than likely catastrophic trade disruptions, which alone could lead to famines, given that nearly 2⁄3 of countries are net food importers, and almost no one makes their own liquid fuel to run their agricultural equipment.
Makes sense. I suppose getting a handle of the climatic effects is mostly relevant for assessing existential risk. Assuming the climatic effects are negligible, my guess is that the probability of extinction until 2100 given a global thermonuclear war without other weapons of mass destruction (namely bio or AI weapons) is less than 10^-5.
Difficult to interpret a lot of this as it seems to be a debate between potentially biased pacifists, and potentially biased military blogger. As with many disagreements the truth is likely in the middle somewhere (as Rodriguez noted). Need new independent studies on this that are divorced from the existing pedigrees. That said, much of the catastrophic risk from nuclear war may be in the more than likely catastrophic trade disruptions, which alone could lead to famines, given that nearly 2⁄3 of countries are net food importers, and almost no one makes their own liquid fuel to run their agricultural equipment.
Agreed, Matt!
Makes sense. I suppose getting a handle of the climatic effects is mostly relevant for assessing existential risk. Assuming the climatic effects are negligible, my guess is that the probability of extinction until 2100 given a global thermonuclear war without other weapons of mass destruction (namely bio or AI weapons) is less than 10^-5.