That said, much of the catastrophic risk from nuclear war may be in the more than likely catastrophic trade disruptions, which alone could lead to famines, given that nearly 2⁄3 of countries are net food importers, and almost no one makes their own liquid fuel to run their agricultural equipment.
Makes sense. I suppose getting a handle of the climatic effects is mostly relevant for assessing existential risk. Assuming the climatic effects are negligible, my guess is that the probability of extinction until 2100 given a global thermonuclear war without other weapons of mass destruction (namely bio or AI weapons) is less than 10^-5.
Agreed, Matt!
Makes sense. I suppose getting a handle of the climatic effects is mostly relevant for assessing existential risk. Assuming the climatic effects are negligible, my guess is that the probability of extinction until 2100 given a global thermonuclear war without other weapons of mass destruction (namely bio or AI weapons) is less than 10^-5.