Update: Iām now creating this sort of a collection of estimates, partly inspired by this comment thread (so thanks, MichaelStJules!). Iām not yet sure if Iāll publish them; I think collecting a diversity of views together will reduce rather than exacerbate information cascades and such, but Iām not sure. Iām also not sure when Iād publish, if I do publish.
But I think the answers are āprobablyā and āwithin a few weeksā.
If anyone happens to know of something like this that already exists, and/āor has thoughts on whether publishing something like this would be valuable or detrimental, please let me know :)
Update #2: This turned into a database of existential estimates, and a post with some broader discussion of the idea of making, using, and collecting such estimates. And itās now posted.
So thanks for (probably accidentally) prompting this!
Update: Iām now creating this sort of a collection of estimates, partly inspired by this comment thread (so thanks, MichaelStJules!). Iām not yet sure if Iāll publish them; I think collecting a diversity of views together will reduce rather than exacerbate information cascades and such, but Iām not sure. Iām also not sure when Iād publish, if I do publish.
But I think the answers are āprobablyā and āwithin a few weeksā.
If anyone happens to know of something like this that already exists, and/āor has thoughts on whether publishing something like this would be valuable or detrimental, please let me know :)
Update #2: This turned into a database of existential estimates, and a post with some broader discussion of the idea of making, using, and collecting such estimates. And itās now posted.
So thanks for (probably accidentally) prompting this!