I agree that geomean-of-odds performs better than geomean-of-probs!
I still think it has issues for converting your beliefs to actions, but I collected that discussion under a cousin comment here: https://​​forum.effectivealtruism.org/​​posts/​​Z7r83zrSXcis6ymKo/​​dissolving-ai-risk-parameter-uncertainty-in-ai-future?commentId=9LxG3WDa4QkLhT36r
I agree that geomean-of-odds performs better than geomean-of-probs!
I still think it has issues for converting your beliefs to actions, but I collected that discussion under a cousin comment here: https://​​forum.effectivealtruism.org/​​posts/​​Z7r83zrSXcis6ymKo/​​dissolving-ai-risk-parameter-uncertainty-in-ai-future?commentId=9LxG3WDa4QkLhT36r