Announcing Fatebook for Slack—a Slack bot designed to help high-impact orgs build a culture of forecasting.
With Fatebook, you can ask a forecasting question in your team’s Slack:
Then, everyone in the channel can forecast:
When it’s time to resolve the question as Yes, No or Ambiguous, the author gets a reminder. Then everyone gets a Brier score, based on their accuracy.
It’s like a tiny, private, fast Metaculus inside your team’s Slack.
Why build a culture of forecasting?
Make better decisions
Communicate more clearly
Build your track record
Trust your most reliable forecasters
We built Fatebook for Slack aiming to help high-impact orgs become more effective.
See the FAQs on the website for more info. We’d really value your feedback in the comments, in our Discord, or at adam@sage-future.org.
You can add Fatebook to your workspace here.
Thanks to all our alpha testers for their valuable feedback, especially the teams at 80,000 Hours, Lightcone, EA Cambridge, and Samotsvety.
I have already installed this and started using this at Founders Pledge. Thanks for making this! I’ve been wanting something like this for a long time.
Some feature requests:
Aggregation choices (e.g. geo mean of odds would be nice)
Brier scores for users
Calibration curves for users
I’ve added a basic calibration curve, thanks for the suggestion!
You can find it in the app’s Home tab (click on Fatebook in the left sidebar > Home tab at the top) once at least one question you’ve forecasted on has resolved.
Great, glad to hear it!
Geo mean of odds is a good idea—it’s probably a more sensible default. How would you feel about us using that everywhere, instead of the current arithmetic mean?
You can see your own absolute and relative Brier score in the app home (click Fatebook in the sidebar). If you’re thinking of a team-wide leaderboard—that’s on our list! Though some users said they wouldn’t like this to avoid Goodharting, so I’ve not prioritised it so far, and will include a team-wide toggle if we add it.
We’ll add this soon!
Ah, great! I think it would be nice to offer different aggregation options, though if you do offer one I agree that geo mean of odds is the best default. But I can imagine people wanting to use medians or averages, or even specifying their own aggregation functions. Especially if you are trying to encourage uptake by less technical organizations, it seems important to offer at least one option that is more legible to less numerate people.
I thought of some other down-the-line feature requests
Google Sheets integration (we currently already store our forecasts in a Google sheet)
Relatedly, ability to export to CSV (does this already exist and I just missed it?)
Ability to designate a particular resolver
Different formal resolution mechanisms, like a poll of users.
Great job—have installed on our slack
Just a heads up, the website doesn’t have a https certificate
Nice! Thanks for the heads up Elliot—which page are you seeing a missing certificate on? Seems to be working for me
Seems to be working for me too now
Great :)