> Yes, I could express that as a fairly involved function, but isn’t the sentence I wrote above a better description of my view?
That sentence isn’t easily scorable, because it’s not very precise. There’s no description of the uncertainty that it has or specificity of what the jumps would be, exactly. It’s also hard to use in an aggregator or similar, or do other sorts of direct modifications on.
But say that these attributes were added. Then, we’d just want some way to formally specify this. We don’t have many options here, as few programming languages / formal specifications are made for this sort of thing. We’ve tried to make Squiggle as a decent fit between “simple to express views with uncertainty” and “runs in code”, but it’s not perfect, and people will want different things.
The easiest thing now is that someone would be in charge of converting this sentence into a formal specification or algorithm. This could be done with an LLM or similar.
This setup feels very similar to other prediction platforms. You could argue some people would feel, “Do I really need to say I’m 85% sure, instead of, ‘I’m really sure’?”.
> Yes, I could express that as a fairly involved function, but isn’t the sentence I wrote above a better description of my view?
That sentence isn’t easily scorable, because it’s not very precise. There’s no description of the uncertainty that it has or specificity of what the jumps would be, exactly. It’s also hard to use in an aggregator or similar, or do other sorts of direct modifications on.
But say that these attributes were added. Then, we’d just want some way to formally specify this. We don’t have many options here, as few programming languages / formal specifications are made for this sort of thing. We’ve tried to make Squiggle as a decent fit between “simple to express views with uncertainty” and “runs in code”, but it’s not perfect, and people will want different things.
The easiest thing now is that someone would be in charge of converting this sentence into a formal specification or algorithm. This could be done with an LLM or similar.
This setup feels very similar to other prediction platforms. You could argue some people would feel, “Do I really need to say I’m 85% sure, instead of, ‘I’m really sure’?”.