We’re just looking for a final Fermi model. You can use or not use AI to come up with this.
“Surprise” is important because that’s arguably what makes a model interesting. As in, if you have a big model about the expected impact of AI, and then it tells you the answer you started out expecting, then arguably it’s not an incredibly useful model.
The specific “Surprise” part of the rubric doesn’t require the model to be great, but the other parts of the rubric do weight that. So if you have a model that’s very surprising but otherwise poor, then it might do well on the “Surprise” measure, but won’t on the other measures, so on average will get a mediocre score.
”On the one hand it says “Our goal is to discover creative ways to use AI for Fermi estimation” but on the other hand it says “AI tools to generate said estimates aren’t required, but we expect them to help.”
-> We’re not forcing people to use AI, in part because it would be difficult to verify. But I expect that many people will do so, so I still expect this to be interesting.
Thanks for the feedback!
We’re just looking for a final Fermi model. You can use or not use AI to come up with this.
“Surprise” is important because that’s arguably what makes a model interesting. As in, if you have a big model about the expected impact of AI, and then it tells you the answer you started out expecting, then arguably it’s not an incredibly useful model.
The specific “Surprise” part of the rubric doesn’t require the model to be great, but the other parts of the rubric do weight that. So if you have a model that’s very surprising but otherwise poor, then it might do well on the “Surprise” measure, but won’t on the other measures, so on average will get a mediocre score.
Note that there were a few submissions on LessWrong so far, those might make things clearer:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AA8GJ7Qc6ndBtJxv7/usd300-fermi-model-competition#comments
”On the one hand it says “Our goal is to discover creative ways to use AI for Fermi estimation” but on the other hand it says “AI tools to generate said estimates aren’t required, but we expect them to help.”
-> We’re not forcing people to use AI, in part because it would be difficult to verify. But I expect that many people will do so, so I still expect this to be interesting.