“It will probably stop doubling long before then, because major governments are much more willing to violently defend their fiat currency than most people seem to be aware of.”
I think this is wrong as logic, and very few countries are in that position. Most countries borrow in foreign currency anyways, so don’t really care that much. The few that do not (US, EU) are very unlikely to attack a business sector which is increasingly politically engaged and supported, much less ignore rule of law in order to address an economic issue that isn’t directly threatening anyone.
On the other hand, yes, I think that the near term market cap is effectively bounded at a level far below that of “all money”—though I’ll caution that my track record predicting crypto is far worse than my other predictions, so take it with a huge grain of salt.
“It will probably stop doubling long before then, because major governments are much more willing to violently defend their fiat currency than most people seem to be aware of.”
I think this is wrong as logic, and very few countries are in that position. Most countries borrow in foreign currency anyways, so don’t really care that much. The few that do not (US, EU) are very unlikely to attack a business sector which is increasingly politically engaged and supported, much less ignore rule of law in order to address an economic issue that isn’t directly threatening anyone.
On the other hand, yes, I think that the near term market cap is effectively bounded at a level far below that of “all money”—though I’ll caution that my track record predicting crypto is far worse than my other predictions, so take it with a huge grain of salt.