I might have thought that some of the most important factors would be things like:
How likely is leadership to pursue intelligence enhancement, given technological opportunity?
How likely is leadership to pursue wisdom enhancement, given technological opportunity?
(Roughly because: either power is broadly distributed, in which case your comments about liberal democracy don’t seem to have so much bite; or it’s not, in which case it’s really the values of leadership that matter.) But I’m not sure you really touch on these. Interested if you have thoughts.
Not sure I follow properly—why would liberal democracy not matter? I think whether biological humans are themselves enhanced in various ways matters less than whether they are getting superhuman (and perhaps super-wise advice). Though possibly wisdom is different and you need the principal to themselves be wise, rather than just getting wise advice.
Yeah roughly the thought is “assuming concentrated power, it matters what the key powerful actors will do” (the liberal democracy comment was an aside saying that I think we should be conditioning on concentrated power).
And then for making educated guesses about what the key powerful actors will do, it seems especially important to me what their attitudes will be at a meta-level: how they prefer to work out what to do, etc.
I might have thought that some of the most important factors would be things like:
How likely is leadership to pursue intelligence enhancement, given technological opportunity?
How likely is leadership to pursue wisdom enhancement, given technological opportunity?
(Roughly because: either power is broadly distributed, in which case your comments about liberal democracy don’t seem to have so much bite; or it’s not, in which case it’s really the values of leadership that matter.) But I’m not sure you really touch on these. Interested if you have thoughts.
Not sure I follow properly—why would liberal democracy not matter? I think whether biological humans are themselves enhanced in various ways matters less than whether they are getting superhuman (and perhaps super-wise advice). Though possibly wisdom is different and you need the principal to themselves be wise, rather than just getting wise advice.
Yeah roughly the thought is “assuming concentrated power, it matters what the key powerful actors will do” (the liberal democracy comment was an aside saying that I think we should be conditioning on concentrated power).
And then for making educated guesses about what the key powerful actors will do, it seems especially important to me what their attitudes will be at a meta-level: how they prefer to work out what to do, etc.