Oh wow, did not really enter to win anything. I just participated because I thought the idea is really cool and it gave me a good opportunity diving into a variety of topics. A pleasant surprise :)
I am a bit surprised by how few people participated. If I remember correctly, 4⁄13 submissions were by me. I talked about this prize with several people and all seemed eager to participate, but apparently they didn’t. So, I am not sure if the lack of forecasters is due to too little promotion (though more would probably helped as well). Seems like there is a large gap between “I like the idea of this” and really sit down and participating.
However, I hope you do something like this again, as it helped me a lot to have a selection of meaningful questions to do forecasts on. Just opening Metaculus can be a bit overwhelming.
If this happens again, I’ll try to hold the people that like the idea accountable, so that they do a forecast and not only think about it.
Oh wow, did not really enter to win anything. I just participated because I thought the idea is really cool and it gave me a good opportunity diving into a variety of topics. A pleasant surprise :)
I am a bit surprised by how few people participated. If I remember correctly, 4⁄13 submissions were by me. I talked about this prize with several people and all seemed eager to participate, but apparently they didn’t. So, I am not sure if the lack of forecasters is due to too little promotion (though more would probably helped as well). Seems like there is a large gap between “I like the idea of this” and really sit down and participating.
However, I hope you do something like this again, as it helped me a lot to have a selection of meaningful questions to do forecasts on. Just opening Metaculus can be a bit overwhelming.
If this happens again, I’ll try to hold the people that like the idea accountable, so that they do a forecast and not only think about it.