Your comment makes it sound like Paul is only arguing in that style in the LW comments, but there’s also plenty of it in this EA forum post, FWIW.
Paul’s frustration is that Eliezer kept repeating the claim “Paul’s view should have been surprised by AlphaGo” and Paul is like “No it wasn’t, particularly, but if you think you know where my view should be surprised (and wrong), let’s see it” – but then Eliezer doesn’t have easily identifiable predictions. Paul’s saying that Eliezer should either stop treating it as though there’s now a track record in his favor (with AlphaGo), or produce bets on similar things coming up.
Your comment makes it sound like Paul is only arguing in that style in the LW comments, but there’s also plenty of it in this EA forum post, FWIW.
Paul’s frustration is that Eliezer kept repeating the claim “Paul’s view should have been surprised by AlphaGo” and Paul is like “No it wasn’t, particularly, but if you think you know where my view should be surprised (and wrong), let’s see it” – but then Eliezer doesn’t have easily identifiable predictions. Paul’s saying that Eliezer should either stop treating it as though there’s now a track record in his favor (with AlphaGo), or produce bets on similar things coming up.