Yes, on balance I suspect you’re right. But I also think individual donors should be looking for black swan opportunities.
Then you’d be looking for something with no donors. (Or nearly none.) The percent of them who were EAs wouldn’t be relevant.
I’m not sure that’s entirely true. The one’s who don’t care about effectiveness make the opportunity less neglected, but it still might be neglected relative to its effectiveness if EAs haven’t noticed the potential there.
Ah, like, if EAs have already discovered it, then you expect it to quickly reach saturation, efficient market style?