On the letter itself, though, I have a bunch of uncertainties around whether a six month pause right now would actually help
I share many of your concerns, though I think on balance I feel more enthusiastic about the six-month pause. (Note that I’m thinking about a six-month pause on frontier AI development that is enforced across the board, at least in the US, and I’m more confused about a six-month pause that a few specific labs opt-in to).
I wonder if this relates more to an epistemic difference (e.g., the actual credence we put on the six-month pause being net positive [or to be more nuanced, the EV we expect once we account for the entire distribution of outcomes]) or a communication difference (e.g., differences in our willingness to express support for things under conditions of high uncertainty).
Regarding the worries you list, #4 is the one I’m most concerned/uncertain about. The others seem to boil down to “if we get a pause, we need to make sure we use it well.” If we get a pause, we should use it to (a) strengthen AI governance ideas and evals, (b) develop and push for more ambitious asks, and (c) build a larger a coalition of people who are concerned about risks from advanced AI.
All of these things are hard. But, all else equal, they seem more likely to happen in a world with a six-month pause than a world without one.
Whereas I think the fourth worry argues why the pause might be net negative. I’m particularly concerned about scenarios where there are many more actors at the frontier of AI development, and race dynamics are even more concerning. (On the other hand, a six-month pause is also a signal that the world is more likely to regulate frontier AI labs. If people expect that the six-month pause will be followed by additional regulation, this might make it less appealing for new actors to enter the race.)
Anyways, I’m still left wondering why I (a) agree with lots of your points yet (b) feel more enthusiastic about a six-month pause.
I’m curious about your all-things-considered perspective on the six-month pause idea: Do you currently think it’s net positive, net negative, or near-zero-value in expectation?
I share many of your concerns, though I think on balance I feel more enthusiastic about the six-month pause. (Note that I’m thinking about a six-month pause on frontier AI development that is enforced across the board, at least in the US, and I’m more confused about a six-month pause that a few specific labs opt-in to).
I wonder if this relates more to an epistemic difference (e.g., the actual credence we put on the six-month pause being net positive [or to be more nuanced, the EV we expect once we account for the entire distribution of outcomes]) or a communication difference (e.g., differences in our willingness to express support for things under conditions of high uncertainty).
Regarding the worries you list, #4 is the one I’m most concerned/uncertain about. The others seem to boil down to “if we get a pause, we need to make sure we use it well.” If we get a pause, we should use it to (a) strengthen AI governance ideas and evals, (b) develop and push for more ambitious asks, and (c) build a larger a coalition of people who are concerned about risks from advanced AI.
All of these things are hard. But, all else equal, they seem more likely to happen in a world with a six-month pause than a world without one.
Whereas I think the fourth worry argues why the pause might be net negative. I’m particularly concerned about scenarios where there are many more actors at the frontier of AI development, and race dynamics are even more concerning. (On the other hand, a six-month pause is also a signal that the world is more likely to regulate frontier AI labs. If people expect that the six-month pause will be followed by additional regulation, this might make it less appealing for new actors to enter the race.)
Anyways, I’m still left wondering why I (a) agree with lots of your points yet (b) feel more enthusiastic about a six-month pause.
I’m curious about your all-things-considered perspective on the six-month pause idea: Do you currently think it’s net positive, net negative, or near-zero-value in expectation?