The average physics textbook contains multiple errors of the order, “forgot to include the normalization term.”[1] To me it seems incorrect to bring up Eliezer’s error as strong evidence that he doesn’t know what he’s talking about, without acknowledging the base rate of similar errors.
(I recognize that you also point to Eliezer’s economics errors. I haven’t read Inadequate Equilibria or the post critiquing it, so I can’t comment on the magnitude of the errors there, but I think a base rate assessment—e.g., how frequently do academic-level economics books turn out to have a shaky thesis?—should again apply.)
The average physics textbook contains multiple errors of the order, “forgot to include the normalization term.”[1] To me it seems incorrect to bring up Eliezer’s error as strong evidence that he doesn’t know what he’s talking about, without acknowledging the base rate of similar errors.
(I recognize that you also point to Eliezer’s economics errors. I haven’t read Inadequate Equilibria or the post critiquing it, so I can’t comment on the magnitude of the errors there, but I think a base rate assessment—e.g., how frequently do academic-level economics books turn out to have a shaky thesis?—should again apply.)
Based on my experience studying the subject at university, at least.