Sounds like a cause X, helping people gain clarity on tractable subsets of the general issue you mentioned… although as I write this I realise 80K and Probably Good etc are a thing, their qualitative advice is great, and they’ve argued against doing the quantitative version. (Some people disagree but they’re in the minority and it hasn’t really caught on in the couple of years I’ve paid attention to this.)
I think the uncertainty is often just irreducible. Someone faces the choice of either becoming an oncologist who treats patients or a cancer researcher. They don’t know which option has higher expected value because they don’t know the relevant probabilities. And there is no way out of that uncertainty, so they have to make a choice with the information they have.
Sounds like a cause X, helping people gain clarity on tractable subsets of the general issue you mentioned… although as I write this I realise 80K and Probably Good etc are a thing, their qualitative advice is great, and they’ve argued against doing the quantitative version. (Some people disagree but they’re in the minority and it hasn’t really caught on in the couple of years I’ve paid attention to this.)
I think the uncertainty is often just irreducible. Someone faces the choice of either becoming an oncologist who treats patients or a cancer researcher. They don’t know which option has higher expected value because they don’t know the relevant probabilities. And there is no way out of that uncertainty, so they have to make a choice with the information they have.