Linch comments on AI timelines and theoretical understanding of deep learning

[Linch]

I have generally been quite skeptical about the view that we are on the cusp of a revolution that will lead us to artificial general intelligence in the next 50 years so.

Can you clarify what you mean by this? Does “quite skeptical” mean

I think there is <20% probability that we’ll have AGI in <50 years

or

I think there is <1% probability that we’ll have AGI in <50 years

or

I think there is <0.01% probability that we’ll have AGI in <50 years

or something else?

Language is quite imprecise, numbers can’t resolve uncertainty in the underlying phenomenon, but they help a lot in clarifying and making the strength of your uncertainty more precise.