This was my initial reaction, that suspiciousness of existing forecasts can justify very wide error bars but not certainty in >50 year timelines. But then I realized I didn’t understand what probability OP gave to <50 years timelines, which is why I asked a clarifying question first.
This was my initial reaction, that suspiciousness of existing forecasts can justify very wide error bars but not certainty in >50 year timelines. But then I realized I didn’t understand what probability OP gave to <50 years timelines, which is why I asked a clarifying question first.