wayne has some … interesting … views
90-10 (fraud-mistake) when Ellison and Wang plead guilty
55-45 when the charges were made public
50-50 when SBF was arrested
25-75 after people disputed his comment below
20-80 after SBF’s dealbook interview
I think it’s the combination of a very strong prior for mistake + not following the situation especially closely
Props to wayne for providing regular and consistent updates to his beliefs, that’s actually pretty amazing
wayne has some … interesting … views
90-10 (fraud-mistake) when Ellison and Wang plead guilty
55-45 when the charges were made public
50-50 when SBF was arrested
25-75 after people disputed his comment below
20-80 after SBF’s dealbook interview
I think it’s the combination of a very strong prior for mistake + not following the situation especially closely
Props to wayne for providing regular and consistent updates to his beliefs, that’s actually pretty amazing