I think that complex cluelessness implies we should be very skeptical of interventions whose claim to cost-effectiveness is through their direct, proximate effects. As has been well argued elsewhere, the long-term effects of these actions probably dominate.
In my reading, the 80,000 Hours article in the link does not fully support this claim. In the section “Can we actually influence the future,” it identifies four ways actions today can influence the long-term future. But it doesn’t provide a solid case about why most interventions would influence the long-term future, rather than having their effects dissipate over time.
In my reading, the 80,000 Hours article in the link does not fully support this claim. In the section “Can we actually influence the future,” it identifies four ways actions today can influence the long-term future. But it doesn’t provide a solid case about why most interventions would influence the long-term future, rather than having their effects dissipate over time.