“From there, we asked it to compute the probabilities of 177 events from Metaculus that had happened (or not happened) since.
Concretely, we asked the bot whether Israel would carry out an attack on Iran before May 1, 2024. We compared the probabilities it arrived at to those arrived at independently by crowds of forecasters on the prediction platform Metaculus. We found that FiveThirtyNine performed just as well as crowd forecasts.”
Just to check my understanding of the excerpt above, were all the 177 events used in evaluation related to Israel attacking Iran?
“From there, we asked it to compute the probabilities of 177 events from Metaculus that had happened (or not happened) since.
Concretely, we asked the bot whether Israel would carry out an attack on Iran before May 1, 2024. We compared the probabilities it arrived at to those arrived at independently by crowds of forecasters on the prediction platform Metaculus. We found that FiveThirtyNine performed just as well as crowd forecasts.”
Just to check my understanding of the excerpt above, were all the 177 events used in evaluation related to Israel attacking Iran?