I find myself quite skeptical of this analysis following the dramatically failed predictions (and more direct calls to action) regarding the tractability of the Carrick Flynn campaign in 2022, which now seems like a major blunder. If anything I think there’s a stronger case for that sort of thing than there is for national presidential elections...
I think the 2nd place result for Carrick is quite good for a 1st-time candidate with 1st-time political action team behind. There were many mistakes obviously, but deciding to run was not one of them IMO. No political action will result in certainty, the goal is ~always to move the needle or take a bunch of swings.
Yes, to be clear I’m not criticizing the initial decision to run but rather the dubious impact estimates and calls to action towards the end of that campaign.
I think it’s good to critically interrogate this kind of analysis. I don’t want to discourage that. But as someone who publicly expressed skepticism about Flynn’s chances, I think there are several differences that mean it warrants closer consideration. The polls are much closer for this race, Biden is well known and experienced at winning campaigns, and the differences between the candidates in this race seem much larger. Based on that it at least seems a lot more reasonable to think Biden could win and that it will be a close race worth spending some effort on.
I find myself quite skeptical of this analysis following the dramatically failed predictions (and more direct calls to action) regarding the tractability of the Carrick Flynn campaign in 2022, which now seems like a major blunder. If anything I think there’s a stronger case for that sort of thing than there is for national presidential elections...
I think the 2nd place result for Carrick is quite good for a 1st-time candidate with 1st-time political action team behind. There were many mistakes obviously, but deciding to run was not one of them IMO. No political action will result in certainty, the goal is ~always to move the needle or take a bunch of swings.
Yes, to be clear I’m not criticizing the initial decision to run but rather the dubious impact estimates and calls to action towards the end of that campaign.
I think it’s good to critically interrogate this kind of analysis. I don’t want to discourage that. But as someone who publicly expressed skepticism about Flynn’s chances, I think there are several differences that mean it warrants closer consideration. The polls are much closer for this race, Biden is well known and experienced at winning campaigns, and the differences between the candidates in this race seem much larger. Based on that it at least seems a lot more reasonable to think Biden could win and that it will be a close race worth spending some effort on.