I don’t think Gelman’s models are correct here. But even if they were, the numbers definitely don’t scale linearly. The vote margin ex post in the last 6 elections were all under 1M, the most recent 2 elections were under 100k. You’ll need pretty implausible assumptions (or really bad targetting) before you can fit an expectation of 10M ex ante votes to the observed ex post distribution.
I don’t think Gelman’s models are correct here. But even if they were, the numbers definitely don’t scale linearly. The vote margin ex post in the last 6 elections were all under 1M, the most recent 2 elections were under 100k. You’ll need pretty implausible assumptions (or really bad targetting) before you can fit an expectation of 10M ex ante votes to the observed ex post distribution.