Glad you brought up real money markets because the real choice here isnāt ā5 unpaid superforecastersā vs ā200 unpaid average forecastersā but ā5 really good people who charge $200/āhā vs ā200 internet anons thatāll do it for peanutsā. Once you notice the difference in unit labor costs, the question becomes: for a fixed budget, whatās the optimal trade-off between crowd size and skill? Iām really uncertain about that myself and have never seen good data on it.
Glad you brought up real money markets because the real choice here isnāt ā5 unpaid superforecastersā vs ā200 unpaid average forecastersā but ā5 really good people who charge $200/āhā vs ā200 internet anons thatāll do it for peanutsā. Once you notice the difference in unit labor costs, the question becomes: for a fixed budget, whatās the optimal trade-off between crowd size and skill? Iām really uncertain about that myself and have never seen good data on it.