I don’t know man, Metaculus forecasters are generally unpaid. Maybe “the best” would be the best monetary prediction market forecasters, or the best hedge-fundies?
Glad you brought up real money markets because the real choice here isn’t “5 unpaid superforecasters” vs “200 unpaid average forecasters” but “5 really good people who charge $200/h” vs “200 internet anons that’ll do it for peanuts”. Once you notice the difference in unit labor costs, the question becomes: for a fixed budget, what’s the optimal trade-off between crowd size and skill? I’m really uncertain about that myself and have never seen good data on it.
I don’t know man, Metaculus forecasters are generally unpaid. Maybe “the best” would be the best monetary prediction market forecasters, or the best hedge-fundies?
Glad you brought up real money markets because the real choice here isn’t “5 unpaid superforecasters” vs “200 unpaid average forecasters” but “5 really good people who charge $200/h” vs “200 internet anons that’ll do it for peanuts”. Once you notice the difference in unit labor costs, the question becomes: for a fixed budget, what’s the optimal trade-off between crowd size and skill? I’m really uncertain about that myself and have never seen good data on it.
Agree.
Really glad this work is being done; grateful to Nikos for it! The “yes, and” is that we’re nowhere near the frontier of what’s possible.
Yeah, definitely. The title was a bit tongue-in-cheek (it’s a movie quote)