I think the thesis is plausible here, but it would be more credible and easier to discuss and act upon if you gave more precise predictions or confidence intervals (e.g. “I think with X% confidence there will be Y billionaires with an aggregate net worth of >Z, excluding Dustin Moskovitz and the FTX/ Alameda crew, in EA by 2027”).
That seems like quite the bold prediction, depending on the operationalization of “new” and “effective altruist”.
I would give you 4-1 odds on this if we took “new” to mean folks not currently giving at scale using an EA framework and not deriving their wealth from FTX/Alameda or Dustin Moskovitz, and require the donors to be (i) billionaires per Bloomberg/Forbes and (ii) giving >50m each to Effective Altruist aligned causes in the year 2027.
Really sorry man, unfortunately I forgot about it. I’m happy to accept that bet in public. How do you propose we make it official? Let’s do $10 to $40 dollars?
No, I don’t want to bet at this point—I’m not interested in betting such a small amount, and don’t want to take the credit risk inherent in betting a larger amount given the limited evidence I’ve got about your reliability.
I think the thesis is plausible here, but it would be more credible and easier to discuss and act upon if you gave more precise predictions or confidence intervals (e.g. “I think with X% confidence there will be Y billionaires with an aggregate net worth of >Z, excluding Dustin Moskovitz and the FTX/ Alameda crew, in EA by 2027”).
I made a bet with a fellow blogger!
$250, even odds: 10 new EA billionaires in 5 years
https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1543368543009390592
Also, I made a manifold market on this:
That seems like quite the bold prediction, depending on the operationalization of “new” and “effective altruist”.
I would give you 4-1 odds on this if we took “new” to mean folks not currently giving at scale using an EA framework and not deriving their wealth from FTX/Alameda or Dustin Moskovitz, and require the donors to be (i) billionaires per Bloomberg/Forbes and (ii) giving >50m each to Effective Altruist aligned causes in the year 2027.
I would be happy to take it at those odds! I’ll DM you later about the bet!
This DM never occurred, FWIW, as of t+8.
Really sorry man, unfortunately I forgot about it. I’m happy to accept that bet in public. How do you propose we make it official? Let’s do $10 to $40 dollars?
No, I don’t want to bet at this point—I’m not interested in betting such a small amount, and don’t want to take the credit risk inherent in betting a larger amount given the limited evidence I’ve got about your reliability.
Alright.
And maybe even more if you open Metaculus questions on those events.
I wrote some similar questions mid last year, prior to FTX scaling up their giving, they could be used as a template:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7340/new-megadonor-in-ea-in-2026/
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7862/sam-bankman-fried-to-donate-1bn-before-2031/