That seems like quite the bold prediction, depending on the operationalization of “new” and “effective altruist”.
I would give you 4-1 odds on this if we took “new” to mean folks not currently giving at scale using an EA framework and not deriving their wealth from FTX/Alameda or Dustin Moskovitz, and require the donors to be (i) billionaires per Bloomberg/Forbes and (ii) giving >50m each to Effective Altruist aligned causes in the year 2027.
Really sorry man, unfortunately I forgot about it. I’m happy to accept that bet in public. How do you propose we make it official? Let’s do $10 to $40 dollars?
No, I don’t want to bet at this point—I’m not interested in betting such a small amount, and don’t want to take the credit risk inherent in betting a larger amount given the limited evidence I’ve got about your reliability.
I made a bet with a fellow blogger!
$250, even odds: 10 new EA billionaires in 5 years
https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1543368543009390592
Also, I made a manifold market on this:
That seems like quite the bold prediction, depending on the operationalization of “new” and “effective altruist”.
I would give you 4-1 odds on this if we took “new” to mean folks not currently giving at scale using an EA framework and not deriving their wealth from FTX/Alameda or Dustin Moskovitz, and require the donors to be (i) billionaires per Bloomberg/Forbes and (ii) giving >50m each to Effective Altruist aligned causes in the year 2027.
I would be happy to take it at those odds! I’ll DM you later about the bet!
This DM never occurred, FWIW, as of t+8.
Really sorry man, unfortunately I forgot about it. I’m happy to accept that bet in public. How do you propose we make it official? Let’s do $10 to $40 dollars?
No, I don’t want to bet at this point—I’m not interested in betting such a small amount, and don’t want to take the credit risk inherent in betting a larger amount given the limited evidence I’ve got about your reliability.
Alright.