If different generations have different views, then it seems like we’ll have an same inconsistency when we shift power from one generation to the next regardless of when we do it. Under your proposal the change happens when the next generation turns 18-37, but doesn’t seem to be lessened. For example, the brexit inconsistency would have been between 20 years ago and today rather than between today and 20 years from now, but it would have been just as large.
In fact I’d expect age-weighting to have more temporal inconsistency overall: in the status quo you average out idiosyncratic variation over multiple generations and swap out 1⁄3 of people every 20 years, while in your proposal you concentrate most power in a single generation which you completely change every 20 years.
Age and wisdom: [...] As a counterargument, crystallised intelligence increases with age and, though fluid intelligence decreases with age, it seems to me that crystallised intelligence is more important than fluid intelligence for informed voting.
Another counterargument: older people have also seen firsthand the long-run consequences of one generation’s policies and have more time to update about what sources of evidence are reliable. It’s not clear to me whether this is a larger or smaller impact than “expect to live through the consequences of policies.” I think folk wisdom often involves deference to elders specifically on questions about long-term consequences.
(I personally think that I’m better at picking policies at 30 than 20, and expect to be better still at 40.)
(I personally think that I’m better at picking policies at 30 than 20, and expect to be better still at 40.)
Again, see comments to Holly and Larks about where the median voting age ends up. I’m going to add that point as an edit into the main post.
Under your proposal the change happens when the next generation turns 18-37, but doesn’t seem to be lessened. For example, the brexit inconsistency would have been between 20 years ago and today rather than between today and 20 years from now, but it would have been just as large.
This is a good point, and my post overstates the case on this. There is still an important difference, though, which is that if there’s a difference between the views of 60 year olds and 30 year olds, we can foresee there will be an intertemporal inconsistency and can choose to avoid it. Whereas if there’s a difference between the views of 30 year olds and 0 year olds we (presumably) don’t know about it and can’t do anything about it.
There’s another intertemporal inconsistency consideration: If we assume rational self-interest and risk-aversion (just in the sense of consumption having diminishing utility), we should expect that earlier on in life, people will prefer more redistributive policies (e.g. progressive tax and redistribution, social safety net for disabilities, weighing costs to prisoners of harsh penalties against benefits of lower crime rate). This is because they have uncertainty about how much they are going to earn, whether they are going to end up disabled, whether they’ll commit a crime. Whereas older people know how things have turned out for them, and face much less risk: those who are wealthier will no longer support redistributive policies; those who know they aren’t going to jail will prefer harsh on crime policies. The early age-weighting is therefore one way to hold people to the decisions they’d make ex ante. I think it’s up for debate how much that matters, but it’s appealing to me—I’m generally attracted to veil of ignorance arguments, and this makes political decision-making slightly more veil-of-ignorance-y.
If different generations have different views, then it seems like we’ll have an same inconsistency when we shift power from one generation to the next regardless of when we do it. Under your proposal the change happens when the next generation turns 18-37, but doesn’t seem to be lessened. For example, the brexit inconsistency would have been between 20 years ago and today rather than between today and 20 years from now, but it would have been just as large.
In fact I’d expect age-weighting to have more temporal inconsistency overall: in the status quo you average out idiosyncratic variation over multiple generations and swap out 1⁄3 of people every 20 years, while in your proposal you concentrate most power in a single generation which you completely change every 20 years.
Another counterargument: older people have also seen firsthand the long-run consequences of one generation’s policies and have more time to update about what sources of evidence are reliable. It’s not clear to me whether this is a larger or smaller impact than “expect to live through the consequences of policies.” I think folk wisdom often involves deference to elders specifically on questions about long-term consequences.
(I personally think that I’m better at picking policies at 30 than 20, and expect to be better still at 40.)
Yes—hence the standard pair of arguments:
vs
Again, see comments to Holly and Larks about where the median voting age ends up. I’m going to add that point as an edit into the main post.
This is a good point, and my post overstates the case on this. There is still an important difference, though, which is that if there’s a difference between the views of 60 year olds and 30 year olds, we can foresee there will be an intertemporal inconsistency and can choose to avoid it. Whereas if there’s a difference between the views of 30 year olds and 0 year olds we (presumably) don’t know about it and can’t do anything about it.
There’s another intertemporal inconsistency consideration: If we assume rational self-interest and risk-aversion (just in the sense of consumption having diminishing utility), we should expect that earlier on in life, people will prefer more redistributive policies (e.g. progressive tax and redistribution, social safety net for disabilities, weighing costs to prisoners of harsh penalties against benefits of lower crime rate). This is because they have uncertainty about how much they are going to earn, whether they are going to end up disabled, whether they’ll commit a crime. Whereas older people know how things have turned out for them, and face much less risk: those who are wealthier will no longer support redistributive policies; those who know they aren’t going to jail will prefer harsh on crime policies. The early age-weighting is therefore one way to hold people to the decisions they’d make ex ante. I think it’s up for debate how much that matters, but it’s appealing to me—I’m generally attracted to veil of ignorance arguments, and this makes political decision-making slightly more veil-of-ignorance-y.