The “probably” there is just for the case of becoming an AI safety researcher. The argument for why being a doctor seems rarely the right choice does of course not just route through AI Alignment being important. It routes through a large number of alternative careers that seem more promising, many of which are analyzed and listed on 80k’s website. That is what my second paragraph was trying to say.
I think if you take into account all of those alternatives, the “probably” turns into a “very likely” and conditioning on “any decent shot” no longer seems necessary to me.
The “probably” there is just for the case of becoming an AI safety researcher. The argument for why being a doctor seems rarely the right choice does of course not just route through AI Alignment being important. It routes through a large number of alternative careers that seem more promising, many of which are analyzed and listed on 80k’s website. That is what my second paragraph was trying to say.
I think if you take into account all of those alternatives, the “probably” turns into a “very likely” and conditioning on “any decent shot” no longer seems necessary to me.