The âany decent shotâ is doing a lot of work in that first sentence, given how hard the field is to get into. And even then you only say âprobably stopâ.
Thereâs a motte/âbailey thing going on here, where the motte is something like âAI safety researchers probably do a lot more good than doctorsâ and the bailey is âall doctors who come into contact with EA should be told to stop what they are doing and switch to becoming (e.g.) AI safety researchers, because thatâs how bad being a doctor isâ.
I donât think we are making the world a better place by doing the second; where possible we should stick to âprobablyâ and communicate the first, nuance and all, as you did do here but as Khorton is noting people often donât do in person.
The âprobablyâ there is just for the case of becoming an AI safety researcher. The argument for why being a doctor seems rarely the right choice does of course not just route through AI Alignment being important. It routes through a large number of alternative careers that seem more promising, many of which are analyzed and listed on 80kâs website. That is what my second paragraph was trying to say.
I think if you take into account all of those alternatives, the âprobablyâ turns into a âvery likelyâ and conditioning on âany decent shotâ no longer seems necessary to me.
The âany decent shotâ is doing a lot of work in that first sentence, given how hard the field is to get into. And even then you only say âprobably stopâ.
Thereâs a motte/âbailey thing going on here, where the motte is something like âAI safety researchers probably do a lot more good than doctorsâ and the bailey is âall doctors who come into contact with EA should be told to stop what they are doing and switch to becoming (e.g.) AI safety researchers, because thatâs how bad being a doctor isâ.
I donât think we are making the world a better place by doing the second; where possible we should stick to âprobablyâ and communicate the first, nuance and all, as you did do here but as Khorton is noting people often donât do in person.
The âprobablyâ there is just for the case of becoming an AI safety researcher. The argument for why being a doctor seems rarely the right choice does of course not just route through AI Alignment being important. It routes through a large number of alternative careers that seem more promising, many of which are analyzed and listed on 80kâs website. That is what my second paragraph was trying to say.
I think if you take into account all of those alternatives, the âprobablyâ turns into a âvery likelyâ and conditioning on âany decent shotâ no longer seems necessary to me.