Here’s an ITN-style analysis from an anonymous friend and me.
Neglectedness. Very few candidates put pandemic preparedness and preserving future generations as their top priorities. Also, given how important it is to have flexible spending from small donors compared to big donors, we could say that $3k increases his effective level of funding by 0.1%.
Tractability. A doubling in funding could increase probability of the campaign winning by 10% (i.e. 30->40%).
Importance. The value of a win is worth $N
The calculation. Then the value of a $3k donation is $N * 0.1% * 10%.
N has to be greater than ~$30M for it to be worth donating. Seems highly likely given Carrick’s expertise in, and interest in pandemic prevention and other issues that are important from a longterm standpoint. Another (related) way to look at it is that if you think that large donors who contributed to the campaign are making the right choice, then small donors donating to the campaign itself are having a severalfold bigger impact per dollar (because their spending is less restricted).
Here’s an ITN-style analysis from an anonymous friend and me.
Neglectedness. Very few candidates put pandemic preparedness and preserving future generations as their top priorities. Also, given how important it is to have flexible spending from small donors compared to big donors, we could say that $3k increases his effective level of funding by 0.1%.
Tractability. A doubling in funding could increase probability of the campaign winning by 10% (i.e. 30->40%).
Importance. The value of a win is worth $N
The calculation. Then the value of a $3k donation is $N * 0.1% * 10%.
N has to be greater than ~$30M for it to be worth donating. Seems highly likely given Carrick’s expertise in, and interest in pandemic prevention and other issues that are important from a longterm standpoint. Another (related) way to look at it is that if you think that large donors who contributed to the campaign are making the right choice, then small donors donating to the campaign itself are having a severalfold bigger impact per dollar (because their spending is less restricted).