Why Helping the Flynn Campaign is especially useful right now
Disclaimer: This endorsement is written in a purely personal, non-professional capacity.
The last date ballots can be submitted for the primary elections in Oregon, including the District 6 race where Carrick Flynn is running (see here for more context on why Carrick seems like an especially impactful candidate to support), is May 17th. That is eight days away.
I think helping out with the campaign is especially impactful right now (as opposed to the general case for impact, which is well laid out in the above post) for three main reasons:
The race seems to be quite tight. According to this poll, Carrick is in second place among likely Democratic voters by 4% (14% of voters favor Flynn, 18% favor Salinas), with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. This means that additional support for the campaign could be pretty counterfactual (as opposed to elections where Carrick is either very likely to win or lose).
The deadline to submit ballots is a week, so interventions to help the campaign (e.g. TV ads, which donations would facilitate, or good conversations from phonebanking and door-knocking), are more likely to translate into actual voting, rather than holding off on deciding.
My impression is that many community members assume that many others are phonebanking, donating, and taking other actions to support the campaign. The actual numbers seem to be much lower than I and people I’ve talked to would have expected, so there might be some bystander effect dynamics going on.
If you’re interested in helping out the campaign in its last week, here are some concrete suggestions:
Donate if you’re able to do so (U.S. citizen or permanent resident who hasn’t maxed out their donations). Donations are especially valuable in the next 1-3 days, since they translate into positive airtime/TV coverage, which is especially effective right before elections. (Donations right before the deadline can’t turn into TV ads).
Encourage your friends, family, colleagues, and other networks to donate, especially if they care about future-oriented policy and pandemic preparedness.
Phonebanking yourself, and organizing phonebanking events with friends (phonebanking can be quite fun to do with other friends). Please fill out this form if you’d be interested in phonebanking, and feel free to contact me if you have any questions.
Traveling to Oregon and doing doorknocking.
A group of us are going to go up and help, so please reach out to me (on FB messenger or email—firstname.lastname@example.org) if you are interested in volunteering in person!
Feel free to email/message me if you have any questions, and hope you have an impactful week!