In retrospect I regret this donation. The original pitch was convincing, framing Carrick as a poor kid from Oregon who went on to graduate from Yale Law and wanted to work on biosecurity policy. But after the election, severalpost-mortems of the campaign made clear that the Flynn campaign spent millions of FTX dollars on advertising, several times more than any of its competitors. Based on local media coverage, the additional marginal advertising my donation might have purchased could plausible have been net-negative for the campaign, generating more animosity among people who’d already seen far too many Flynn commercials.
I’m interested in EAs running for political office, but would not again support a candidate when my dollars could be easily replaced by FTX or another megadonor. IMO global poverty and other shovel-ready causes are a better use of marginal funds than the already-crowded longtermist space. The full cost-benefit analysis is difficult and debatable, but at a minimum I wish I was better informed about the level of spending by the Flynn campaign at the time I donated.
Note that your dollars were not replaced by FTX: you donated to Carrick’s campaign, whereas FTX’s donations went to a super PAC that did not coordinate with or made contributions to that campaign (it was this super PAC that spent millions in advertising). Of course, you may still be right that your donations were ineffective or even net negative, especially if your contribution resulted in increased ad spending by the campaign.
Donated because of this post. Thanks for sharing and good luck to Carrick.
In retrospect I regret this donation. The original pitch was convincing, framing Carrick as a poor kid from Oregon who went on to graduate from Yale Law and wanted to work on biosecurity policy. But after the election, several post-mortems of the campaign made clear that the Flynn campaign spent millions of FTX dollars on advertising, several times more than any of its competitors. Based on local media coverage, the additional marginal advertising my donation might have purchased could plausible have been net-negative for the campaign, generating more animosity among people who’d already seen far too many Flynn commercials.
I’m interested in EAs running for political office, but would not again support a candidate when my dollars could be easily replaced by FTX or another megadonor. IMO global poverty and other shovel-ready causes are a better use of marginal funds than the already-crowded longtermist space. The full cost-benefit analysis is difficult and debatable, but at a minimum I wish I was better informed about the level of spending by the Flynn campaign at the time I donated.
Note that your dollars were not replaced by FTX: you donated to Carrick’s campaign, whereas FTX’s donations went to a super PAC that did not coordinate with or made contributions to that campaign (it was this super PAC that spent millions in advertising). Of course, you may still be right that your donations were ineffective or even net negative, especially if your contribution resulted in increased ad spending by the campaign.