I think these numbers are too optimistic and unlikely to be true in 2024, but I donât have a good source for more up-to-date numbers.
THL estimated $2.63 per cage-freed hen in 2022, significantly less effective than 66 years per dollar. And thatâs an estimate of average cost-effectiveness, not an estimate of the cost-effectiveness of marginal funding (which is likely to be much lower)
The THL estimate is a little strange, I think â the $2.63 is really just their US branchâs total 2022 expenses on cage-free campaigns divided by the current number of hens (presently, or at any given time) in the supply chain of companies they persuaded that year. Iâm not sure how they are calculating cage-free campaign spend as a proportion of total budget, nor what âpersuadedâ means (anyone they did outreach to? anyone they secured new commitments from?). Also, the number doesnât account for the fact that once one hen dies, another takes its place in the same living conditions (although the article acknowledges this limitation). So the real value is the delta, in years, between if/âwhen cage-free would have taken hold by default, and when it did/âwill thanks to their campaign.
Saulius, the author of the RP report that estimates 12-160 chicken-years impacted per dollar spent, says the following as of 3 months ago:
A new estimate would probably output a similar number because reforms have probably gotten less effective, but I now think that I underestimated cost-effectiveness in this report.
Meanwhile Open Phil says the following, about the same report, but referring to marginal opportunities in particular. Itâs unclear to me if theyâre thinking of cage-free campaign spend as a âmarginal FAW funding opportunityâ however.
We think that the marginal FAW funding opportunity is ~1/â5th as cost-effective as the average from Sauliusâ analysis.
For reference, I estimated based on Sauliusâ numbers and Open Philâs adjustment that broiler welfare and cage-free campaigns are 168 and 462 times as cost-effective as GiveWellâs top charities, averting the equivalent of 1.67 and 4.59 DALYs per $.
I think these numbers are too optimistic and unlikely to be true in 2024, but I donât have a good source for more up-to-date numbers.
THL estimated $2.63 per cage-freed hen in 2022, significantly less effective than 66 years per dollar. And thatâs an estimate of average cost-effectiveness, not an estimate of the cost-effectiveness of marginal funding (which is likely to be much lower)
The THL estimate is a little strange, I think â the $2.63 is really just their US branchâs total 2022 expenses on cage-free campaigns divided by the current number of hens (presently, or at any given time) in the supply chain of companies they persuaded that year. Iâm not sure how they are calculating cage-free campaign spend as a proportion of total budget, nor what âpersuadedâ means (anyone they did outreach to? anyone they secured new commitments from?). Also, the number doesnât account for the fact that once one hen dies, another takes its place in the same living conditions (although the article acknowledges this limitation). So the real value is the delta, in years, between if/âwhen cage-free would have taken hold by default, and when it did/âwill thanks to their campaign.
Saulius, the author of the RP report that estimates 12-160 chicken-years impacted per dollar spent, says the following as of 3 months ago:
Meanwhile Open Phil says the following, about the same report, but referring to marginal opportunities in particular. Itâs unclear to me if theyâre thinking of cage-free campaign spend as a âmarginal FAW funding opportunityâ however.
For reference, I estimated based on Sauliusâ numbers and Open Philâs adjustment that broiler welfare and cage-free campaigns are 168 and 462 times as cost-effective as GiveWellâs top charities, averting the equivalent of 1.67 and 4.59 DALYs per $.