I think these numbers are too optimistic and unlikely to be true in 2024, but I don’t have a good source for more up-to-date numbers.
THL estimated $2.63 per cage-freed hen in 2022, significantly less effective than 66 years per dollar. And that’s an estimate of average cost-effectiveness, not an estimate of the cost-effectiveness of marginal funding (which is likely to be much lower)
The THL estimate is a little strange, I think — the $2.63 is really just their US branch’s total 2022 expenses on cage-free campaigns divided by the current number of hens (presently, or at any given time) in the supply chain of companies they persuaded that year. I’m not sure how they are calculating cage-free campaign spend as a proportion of total budget, nor what “persuaded” means (anyone they did outreach to? anyone they secured new commitments from?). Also, the number doesn’t account for the fact that once one hen dies, another takes its place in the same living conditions (although the article acknowledges this limitation). So the real value is the delta, in years, between if/when cage-free would have taken hold by default, and when it did/will thanks to their campaign.
Saulius, the author of the RP report that estimates 12-160 chicken-years impacted per dollar spent, says the following as of 3 months ago:
A new estimate would probably output a similar number because reforms have probably gotten less effective, but I now think that I underestimated cost-effectiveness in this report.
Meanwhile Open Phil says the following, about the same report, but referring to marginal opportunities in particular. It’s unclear to me if they’re thinking of cage-free campaign spend as a “marginal FAW funding opportunity” however.
We think that the marginal FAW funding opportunity is ~1/5th as cost-effective as the average from Saulius’ analysis.
I think these numbers are too optimistic and unlikely to be true in 2024, but I don’t have a good source for more up-to-date numbers.
THL estimated $2.63 per cage-freed hen in 2022, significantly less effective than 66 years per dollar. And that’s an estimate of average cost-effectiveness, not an estimate of the cost-effectiveness of marginal funding (which is likely to be much lower)
The THL estimate is a little strange, I think — the $2.63 is really just their US branch’s total 2022 expenses on cage-free campaigns divided by the current number of hens (presently, or at any given time) in the supply chain of companies they persuaded that year. I’m not sure how they are calculating cage-free campaign spend as a proportion of total budget, nor what “persuaded” means (anyone they did outreach to? anyone they secured new commitments from?). Also, the number doesn’t account for the fact that once one hen dies, another takes its place in the same living conditions (although the article acknowledges this limitation). So the real value is the delta, in years, between if/when cage-free would have taken hold by default, and when it did/will thanks to their campaign.
Saulius, the author of the RP report that estimates 12-160 chicken-years impacted per dollar spent, says the following as of 3 months ago:
Meanwhile Open Phil says the following, about the same report, but referring to marginal opportunities in particular. It’s unclear to me if they’re thinking of cage-free campaign spend as a “marginal FAW funding opportunity” however.