+1 to all the other resources in these answers, but never underestimate how useful it is to just get started! I keep this link bookmarked, which shows the currently-open Metaculus questions which will close soonest. Making quick predictions on these questions keeps the feedback loop as tight as possible (although it’s still not that tight to be honest).
Also, Superforecasting is great but longer than it needs to be, I’ve heard that there are good summaries out there but don’t personally know where they are.
Also, Superforecasting is great but longer than it needs to be, I’ve heard that there are good summaries out there but don’t personally know where they are.
+1 to all the other resources in these answers, but never underestimate how useful it is to just get started! I keep this link bookmarked, which shows the currently-open Metaculus questions which will close soonest. Making quick predictions on these questions keeps the feedback loop as tight as possible (although it’s still not that tight to be honest).
Also, Superforecasting is great but longer than it needs to be, I’ve heard that there are good summaries out there but don’t personally know where they are.
I like this summary from AI Impacts.