This sounds like a cool idea, thanks for doing it!
One place where you could find a bunch of ideas is my Database of existential risk estimates (context here). It could be interesting to put very similar questions/āstatements on Metaculus and see how their forecasts differ from the estimates given by these individuals/āpapers (most of whom donāt have any known forecasting track record). It could also be interesting to put on Metaculus:
questions inspired by (but different from) the statements in that database
questions inspired by what you notice there arenāt any statements on
e.g., neglected categories of risks, or risks where there are very long time-scale estimates but nothing for the next few decades
I think authoritarianism and dystopias are examples of that
questions that could serve as somewhat nearer-term, less extreme proxies of later catastrophes
On the other hand, forecasting existential risks (or similar things) introduces other challenges aside from being (usually) long-range. So this might not be the ideal approach for your specific goalsānot sure.
(This is a somewhat lazy response, since Iām just pointing in a direction rather than giving specifics, but maybe it could still be helpful.)
This sounds like a cool idea, thanks for doing it!
One place where you could find a bunch of ideas is my Database of existential risk estimates (context here). It could be interesting to put very similar questions/āstatements on Metaculus and see how their forecasts differ from the estimates given by these individuals/āpapers (most of whom donāt have any known forecasting track record). It could also be interesting to put on Metaculus:
questions inspired by (but different from) the statements in that database
questions inspired by what you notice there arenāt any statements on
e.g., neglected categories of risks, or risks where there are very long time-scale estimates but nothing for the next few decades
I think authoritarianism and dystopias are examples of that
questions that could serve as somewhat nearer-term, less extreme proxies of later catastrophes
On the other hand, forecasting existential risks (or similar things) introduces other challenges aside from being (usually) long-range. So this might not be the ideal approach for your specific goalsānot sure.
(This is a somewhat lazy response, since Iām just pointing in a direction rather than giving specifics, but maybe it could still be helpful.)