What are the main pathways by which each type of authoritarian political system could reduce (or increase) the expected value of the long-term future?
E.g., increasing the rate or severity of armed conflict; reducing the chance that humanity has (something approximating) a successful long reflection; increasing the chances of an unrecoverable dystopia.
Risk and security factors for (global, stable) authoritarianism
How much would each of the “risk factors for stable totalitarianism” reviewed by Caplan (2008) increase the risk of (global, stable) authoritarianism (if at all)?
How likely is the occurrence of each factor?
What other risk or security factors should we focus on?
What effects would those factors have on important outcomes other than authoritarianism? All things considered, is each factor good or bad for the long-term future?
E.g., mass surveillance, preventive policing, enhanced global governance, and/or world government might be risk factors from the perspective of authoritarianism but security factors from the perspective of extinction or collapse risks (see also Bostrom, 2019).
What are the best actions for influencing these factors?
How likely is it that relevant kinds of authoritarian regimes will emerge, spread (especially to become global), and/or persist (especially indefinitely)?
How politically and technologically feasible would this be?
Under what conditions would societies trend towards and/or maintain authoritarianism or a lack thereof?
What strategic, military, economic, and political advantages and disadvantages do more authoritarian regimes tend to have? How does this differ based on factors like the nature of the authoritarian regime, the size of the state/polity it governs, and the nature and size of its adversaries?
How likely is it that relevant actors will have the right motivations to bring this about?
How many current political systems seem to be trending towards authoritarianism?
How much (if at all) are existing authoritarian regimes likely to spread? How long are they likely to persist? Why?
How likely is it that any existing authoritarian regimes would spread globally and/or persist indefinitely? Why?
Typology of, likelihoods of, and interventions for dystopias
How likely is each type of dystopia to arise initially and then to persist indefinitely?
How bad would each type of unrecoverable dystopia be, relative to each other, to other existential catastrophes, and to other possible futures?
How much should we worry about recoverable or temporary equivalents of each type of unrecoverable dystopia?
E.g., how much would each increase (or decrease) the risk of later extinction, unrecoverable collapse, or unrecoverable dystopia?
What are the main factors affecting the likelihood, severity, and persistence of each type of dystopia?
What would be the best actions for reducing the likelihood, severity, or persistence of each type of dystopia?
On authoritarianism and/or dystopias
What are the main pathways by which each type of authoritarian political system could reduce (or increase) the expected value of the long-term future?
E.g., increasing the rate or severity of armed conflict; reducing the chance that humanity has (something approximating) a successful long reflection; increasing the chances of an unrecoverable dystopia.
Risk and security factors for (global, stable) authoritarianism
How much would each of the “risk factors for stable totalitarianism” reviewed by Caplan (2008) increase the risk of (global, stable) authoritarianism (if at all)?
How likely is the occurrence of each factor?
What other risk or security factors should we focus on?
What effects would those factors have on important outcomes other than authoritarianism? All things considered, is each factor good or bad for the long-term future?
E.g., mass surveillance, preventive policing, enhanced global governance, and/or world government might be risk factors from the perspective of authoritarianism but security factors from the perspective of extinction or collapse risks (see also Bostrom, 2019).
What are the best actions for influencing these factors?
How likely is it that relevant kinds of authoritarian regimes will emerge, spread (especially to become global), and/or persist (especially indefinitely)?
How politically and technologically feasible would this be?
Under what conditions would societies trend towards and/or maintain authoritarianism or a lack thereof?
What strategic, military, economic, and political advantages and disadvantages do more authoritarian regimes tend to have? How does this differ based on factors like the nature of the authoritarian regime, the size of the state/polity it governs, and the nature and size of its adversaries?
How likely is it that relevant actors will have the right motivations to bring this about?
How many current political systems seem to be trending towards authoritarianism?
How much (if at all) are existing authoritarian regimes likely to spread? How long are they likely to persist? Why?
How likely is it that any existing authoritarian regimes would spread globally and/or persist indefinitely? Why?
Typology of, likelihoods of, and interventions for dystopias
How likely is each type of dystopia to arise initially and then to persist indefinitely?
How bad would each type of unrecoverable dystopia be, relative to each other, to other existential catastrophes, and to other possible futures?
How much should we worry about recoverable or temporary equivalents of each type of unrecoverable dystopia?
E.g., how much would each increase (or decrease) the risk of later extinction, unrecoverable collapse, or unrecoverable dystopia?
What are the main factors affecting the likelihood, severity, and persistence of each type of dystopia?
What would be the best actions for reducing the likelihood, severity, or persistence of each type of dystopia?