One quick question on the policy implication as I (as a climate philanthropist) often ask myself whether or not to fund geoengineering advocacy.
While your argument—if correct—pushes strongly in the direction of worlds where we would want to use geoengineering by making an emergency situation much more likely in expectation, even the lowest estimate you cite in term of the transition (four years) still seems like plenty of time if the global community decided geo-engineering was a global priority (like, say, in a way that vaccine development was for COVID-19).
I.e., does it really change something in term of optimal action now re geo-engineering?
(I do think your argument has strong force re optimal climate policy more generally, I am just less sure it affects geo-engineering prioritization within the portfolio).
I think, yes. We need a completely new science of “urgent geoengineering”—that is something like creating artificial nuclear winter by controlled fires in forests which will give us a few years of time to develop better methods or to reverse the dangerous trend.
I tried 6 years ago to create a more detailed plan (it may obsolete, but that is what I have) here
Thank you, this is fascinating stuff!
One quick question on the policy implication as I (as a climate philanthropist) often ask myself whether or not to fund geoengineering advocacy.
While your argument—if correct—pushes strongly in the direction of worlds where we would want to use geoengineering by making an emergency situation much more likely in expectation, even the lowest estimate you cite in term of the transition (four years) still seems like plenty of time if the global community decided geo-engineering was a global priority (like, say, in a way that vaccine development was for COVID-19).
I.e., does it really change something in term of optimal action now re geo-engineering?
(I do think your argument has strong force re optimal climate policy more generally, I am just less sure it affects geo-engineering prioritization within the portfolio).
I think, yes. We need a completely new science of “urgent geoengineering”—that is something like creating artificial nuclear winter by controlled fires in forests which will give us a few years of time to develop better methods or to reverse the dangerous trend.
I tried 6 years ago to create a more detailed plan (it may obsolete, but that is what I have) here
http://immortality-roadmap.com/warming3.pdf it is a chart
and it is its explanation https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/C3F87C8r6QFXwnwqp/the-map-of-global-warming-prevention
Thanks, will have a look!