Note also that if timelines are short, then the cost effectiveness of saving lives via traditional neartermist interventions decreases. IIRC, GiveWell equates a “life saved” with ~40 years extra life (or 40 QALYs). So if we only have 5 years left before extinction, then the cost effectiveness estimates worsen by a factor of 8 (40/5). So instead of £5,000 to save a life, neartermist interventions would need to clear a bar of £625 to save a life. Although I think at this point we might be better off just thinking in terms of £/QALY. And interventions aimed at averting severe depression (“£200 to avert one year of severe depression”) or chicken suffering (“£5 to avert the suffering of one chicken who is living in very poor conditions”) seem more promising.
Interesting point about how any extinction timelines less than the length of a human life change the thresholds we should be using for neartermism as well! Thank you, Greg. I’ll read what you linked.
Note also that if timelines are short, then the cost effectiveness of saving lives via traditional neartermist interventions decreases. IIRC, GiveWell equates a “life saved” with ~40 years extra life (or 40 QALYs). So if we only have 5 years left before extinction, then the cost effectiveness estimates worsen by a factor of 8 (40/5). So instead of £5,000 to save a life, neartermist interventions would need to clear a bar of £625 to save a life. Although I think at this point we might be better off just thinking in terms of £/QALY. And interventions aimed at averting severe depression (“£200 to avert one year of severe depression”) or chicken suffering (“£5 to avert the suffering of one chicken who is living in very poor conditions”) seem more promising.
Interesting point about how any extinction timelines less than the length of a human life change the thresholds we should be using for neartermism as well! Thank you, Greg. I’ll read what you linked.