Great that SoGive is setting these benchmarks. I’m of the opinion that we are very much in a time of perils, and indeed the entire future may well hinge on the next few years (or less), with regard to AI x-risk. I also think that work aimed at slowing down AI is woefully neglected. Right now, I think such work (examples) could easily be as cost effective as $1M per bp of x-risk reduction (this century at least).
Note also that if timelines are short, then the cost effectiveness of saving lives via traditional neartermist interventions decreases. IIRC, GiveWell equates a “life saved” with ~40 years extra life (or 40 QALYs). So if we only have 5 years left before extinction, then the cost effectiveness estimates worsen by a factor of 8 (40/5). So instead of £5,000 to save a life, neartermist interventions would need to clear a bar of £625 to save a life. Although I think at this point we might be better off just thinking in terms of £/QALY. And interventions aimed at averting severe depression (“£200 to avert one year of severe depression”) or chicken suffering (“£5 to avert the suffering of one chicken who is living in very poor conditions”) seem more promising.
Interesting point about how any extinction timelines less than the length of a human life change the thresholds we should be using for neartermism as well! Thank you, Greg. I’ll read what you linked.
Great that SoGive is setting these benchmarks. I’m of the opinion that we are very much in a time of perils, and indeed the entire future may well hinge on the next few years (or less), with regard to AI x-risk. I also think that work aimed at slowing down AI is woefully neglected. Right now, I think such work (examples) could easily be as cost effective as $1M per bp of x-risk reduction (this century at least).
Note also that if timelines are short, then the cost effectiveness of saving lives via traditional neartermist interventions decreases. IIRC, GiveWell equates a “life saved” with ~40 years extra life (or 40 QALYs). So if we only have 5 years left before extinction, then the cost effectiveness estimates worsen by a factor of 8 (40/5). So instead of £5,000 to save a life, neartermist interventions would need to clear a bar of £625 to save a life. Although I think at this point we might be better off just thinking in terms of £/QALY. And interventions aimed at averting severe depression (“£200 to avert one year of severe depression”) or chicken suffering (“£5 to avert the suffering of one chicken who is living in very poor conditions”) seem more promising.
Interesting point about how any extinction timelines less than the length of a human life change the thresholds we should be using for neartermism as well! Thank you, Greg. I’ll read what you linked.
Also, for this reason I think that x-risk reduction should very much not be lumped in with longtermism. It is, in fact, very near term, now.