I agree that the second statement is a prediction, and suspect the issue may lie in the inferences one might draw from it.
As a formal matter, does “it’s likely X will happen within one week” imply “it is very likely X will happen within two weeks” and “it is extremely likely X will happen within three weeks”? Without more, I do not think the first statement logically implies any particular confidence intervals.[1]
However, I think it is readily foreseeable that a good number of readers would assign significant credence to the latter two statements based on the first, but would feel hesitant to nag the decisionmaker on their grant to be clearer on the confidence intervals. Thus, if the two week / three week statements are not valid, and that is not otherwise clear from the context,[2] I think it would be much better to include a disclaimer here. E.g.: However, there is a reasonable possibility that our decision could take 3-4 weeks, or even longer, primarily due to other things on our lawyer’s desk.
An example of “without more”: I call a company customer-service line, and am told that there are 30 callers ahead of me, that calls are answered in the order received, and that the estimated wait time is 15 minutes. Due to the law of large numbers, I think I’d be entitled to infer a wait time between ~10-20 minutes here.
I would view “nothing may get done in the 1-1.5 weeks surrounding Christmas” as obvious if the correspondents both lived in countries where Christmas leave is common.
The first one is a commitment, but the second one isn’t—it’s rather a prediction. Perhaps there is a language familiarity issue?
I agree that the second statement is a prediction, and suspect the issue may lie in the inferences one might draw from it.
As a formal matter, does “it’s likely X will happen within one week” imply “it is very likely X will happen within two weeks” and “it is extremely likely X will happen within three weeks”? Without more, I do not think the first statement logically implies any particular confidence intervals.[1]
However, I think it is readily foreseeable that a good number of readers would assign significant credence to the latter two statements based on the first, but would feel hesitant to nag the decisionmaker on their grant to be clearer on the confidence intervals. Thus, if the two week / three week statements are not valid, and that is not otherwise clear from the context,[2] I think it would be much better to include a disclaimer here. E.g.: However, there is a reasonable possibility that our decision could take 3-4 weeks, or even longer, primarily due to other things on our lawyer’s desk.
An example of “without more”: I call a company customer-service line, and am told that there are 30 callers ahead of me, that calls are answered in the order received, and that the estimated wait time is 15 minutes. Due to the law of large numbers, I think I’d be entitled to infer a wait time between ~10-20 minutes here.
I would view “nothing may get done in the 1-1.5 weeks surrounding Christmas” as obvious if the correspondents both lived in countries where Christmas leave is common.